摩根士丹利基金李子扬：“科技叙事”持续演绎把握高端制造趋势性机会

Core Viewpoint - The continuous evolution of the "technology narrative" combined with strong policy support for technological innovation presents significant investment opportunities in the high-end manufacturing sector, characterized by strong competitive dynamics and profitability [1]. Group 1: Investment Framework - The investment strategy is based on a top-down approach, focusing on macro policy direction, industry prosperity, and competitive landscape to select high-quality sectors [2]. - Priority is given to companies with technological barriers, stable competitive environments, and high market shares, emphasizing the alignment of growth potential with reasonable valuations [2]. - Dynamic adjustments to holdings based on ongoing tracking of industry prosperity and valuation levels are crucial for generating excess returns [2]. Group 2: Company Selection - The focus is on companies with favorable competitive dynamics, large market sizes, and high growth potential, verified through in-depth research and long-term tracking [3]. - Companies in the technology penetration phase, market expansion phase, and cyclical recovery phase are particularly targeted for investment [3]. - Communication with upstream and downstream companies enhances the reliability of research conclusions through multi-dimensional industry information comparison [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Expectations of continued global monetary easing and rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are likely to support the equity market [3]. - The steady recovery of the domestic economy and anticipated liquidity in the A-share market suggest promising investment opportunities in the technology sector, especially in high-end manufacturing [3]. Group 4: Company Avoidance Criteria - Companies with deteriorating competitive dynamics, low industry barriers, or declining demand are to be avoided [3]. - Companies with frequently changing management strategies and lack of long-term planning should also be excluded [3]. - Firms with misaligned interests between management and shareholders, as well as those with outdated technologies, are considered undesirable investments [3].