鲍威尔“放鸽” 美联储降息窗口或将开启

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium suggests a potential interest rate cut in the coming months despite rising inflation risks in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Employment Market Risks - Powell highlighted the "peculiar balance" in the U.S. labor market, where both supply and demand are slowing, leading to a stable unemployment rate but significant downside risks [2] - July's non-farm payrolls showed only 73,000 new jobs, far below the expected 115,000, with previous months' figures revised down significantly [2] - The rising unemployment rate, which increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, indicates a cooling job market [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The recent employment data supports a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy framework, with a consensus forming around a potential rate cut in September [3] - A 25 basis point cut is seen as the most likely option, allowing for a signal of easing without alarming the markets [3] - Upcoming employment and CPI data will be crucial in determining the timing and extent of any rate cuts [3] Group 3: Global Market Implications - A rate cut in September could lead to a weaker dollar, encouraging capital flows into emerging markets and boosting global risk appetite [4] - The potential for a shift in cross-border capital flows may present a revaluation opportunity for emerging market assets [4] - If the core PCE price index falls below 2.8% in October, further rate cuts could follow, totaling 50 to 75 basis points by year-end [4]