鲍威尔松口或降息 美联储麻烦仍未了

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential adjustment in monetary policy due to changing risk balances, suggesting a possible interest rate cut in September [1][2] - Following Powell's remarks, market expectations shifted significantly, with an estimated 85% probability of a rate cut in September according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [2] - Financial markets reacted positively, with major U.S. stock indices rising and U.S. Treasury yields falling sharply after Powell's speech [2] Group 2 - Powell's speech highlighted internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing and necessity of a rate cut, with some officials calling for more data before making a decision [3] - Political pressures from President Trump, who has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's current stance on interest rates, add complexity to the Fed's decision-making process [3][4] - The Fed's future monetary policy path remains uncertain, as Powell emphasized that decisions will be based on data assessments rather than preset paths, indicating a reliance on upcoming economic indicators [5]