兴银基金张璐： 债市格局震荡 提高胜率意识

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition of Zhang Lu from a bank wealth management company to a public fund institution, emphasizing the importance of focusing on win rates over odds in the current volatile bond market [1][3]. Investment Strategy Refinement - Zhang Lu has extensive experience in fixed income asset management and successfully navigated the challenges of managing large-scale funds during the transition to net value [2]. - The management of large-scale fixed income products presents challenges, particularly during market adjustments, necessitating careful portfolio construction and stress testing [2]. - At the public fund institution, Zhang Lu has refined investment strategies, focusing on credit bonds, pricing, and arbitrage opportunities, allowing for deeper and more detailed strategy exploration [2]. Pursuit of Higher Win Rates - The bond market has faced significant challenges this year, with a notable "stock-bond seesaw" effect impacting bond investments [3]. - Zhang Lu noted that the odds for investing in interest rate bonds have changed compared to last year, leading to a preference for credit bonds due to their higher cost-effectiveness in trading [3]. - Proactive preparation for key events and market sentiment can yield positive returns, as demonstrated by strategic purchases of quality bonds during market sell-offs [3]. Market Dynamics and Challenges - The stock market's recent rise is attributed to valuation recovery and improved liquidity, which affects short-term market sentiment [4]. - Long-term pressure on the bond market is considered manageable if monetary policy remains accommodative and no external shocks occur, although the "stock withdrawal" effect poses challenges for fixed income products [4]. - The increasing consistency in behavior among investors, particularly in wealth management, necessitates ongoing optimization of liability structures to enhance investor experience and returns [4]. Understanding Funding Needs - The effectiveness of fixed income product returns relies on understanding the funding needs of the investment side, requiring a match of investment strategies with funding habits [5]. - Sufficient liquidity must be reserved to address funding fluctuations while ensuring a positive holding experience for investors [5].