【广发策略港股&海外】HIBOR快速攀升对港股有何影响？

Group 1 - The recent rise in HIBOR is attributed to a contraction in Hong Kong dollar supply and increased demand from southbound capital inflows, leading to a narrowing of the Hong Kong-US interest rate spread and triggering the unwinding of carry trades, which further pushed up HIBOR and the Hong Kong dollar [1][22][23] - Historical data shows that when HIBOR rises by 20 basis points, there is an 81% probability that the Hang Seng Index will decline on the same day, with an average drop of 1.9%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has a 71% probability of decline with an average drop of 1.1% [4][26][27] - The impact of HIBOR on the Hong Kong stock market is indirect and short-term, primarily affecting financing rates linked to HIBOR, which influences market liquidity and investor behavior [12][39] Group 2 - The current macroeconomic environment, including expectations of US interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar, is favorable for Hong Kong stock market liquidity, supporting the market's performance [15][43] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for asset allocation, focusing on stable value assets with high AH premium as a long-term base, while also considering growth assets with significant potential [15][47] - Recent trends indicate that southbound capital inflows remain strong, with notable net purchases in major stocks like Alibaba and Meituan, suggesting continued interest in Hong Kong equities [52]