Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that domestic manufacturers are expected to gradually increase their market share in high-end switching chips due to continuous breakthroughs and increased overall AI spending, with projected market sizes for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 257 billion, 356 billion, and 475 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 61%, 39%, and 33% [1] - The current overall domestic substitution rate of switching chips is low, especially in the high-end chip market, where companies like Broadcom, Marvell, and NVIDIA dominate, indicating significant room for domestic chip replacement [1] Group 2 - The evolution of large models and the expansion of Scale up clusters are identified as important trends, with large language model parameters evolving from hundreds of billions to trillions and beyond, employing various strategies to address the limitations of model size [2] - The communication requirements for tensor and expert parallelism are stringent, making high-bandwidth, low-latency Scale up networks the mainstream technical solution in the industry [2] Group 3 - The ongoing upgrade of overseas AI chips to Scale up sizes is driving new demand for switching chips, with current GPU Scale up interconnects reaching dozens of cards and evolving towards hundreds, while AI custom chip interconnects are expanding from dozens to thousands [3] - Domestic AI companies are launching their own supernode products equipped with Scale up switching nodes, with Huawei's Ascend supporting interconnects of 384 chips and Baidu's Kunlun supporting 32/64 card interconnects [3] - Various domestic manufacturers, including ZTE and H3C, are providing foundational engineering capabilities for domestic chips to transition to supernodes, with ZTE's supernode server achieving GPU communication bandwidths of 400GB/s to 1.6T/s [3] - In the Scale up switching domain, Ethernet, PCIe, and private protocols (such as NVLink and UB) are expected to coexist, while Ethernet is anticipated to dominate the Scale out domain due to its open ecosystem and cost advantages [3]
国泰海通:scale up带动交换芯片新需求 国内厂商市场份额有望逐步提升