兴银基金张璐：债市格局震荡 提高胜率意识

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition of Zhang Lu from a bank wealth management company to a public fund institution, emphasizing the importance of focusing on win rates over odds in the current volatile bond market [1][3]. Investment Strategy - Zhang Lu has extensive experience in fixed income asset management and successfully navigated the challenges of managing large-scale funds during the transition to net value [2]. - The management of large-scale fixed income products presents challenges, particularly during market adjustments, necessitating careful structuring and stress testing during the portfolio construction phase [2]. - In the public fund sector, there is a greater emphasis on individual capability, such as selecting credit bonds for pricing and finding trading opportunities amid spread changes [2]. Market Conditions - The bond market has faced significant challenges this year, particularly with the ongoing strength in the equity market, which has created a "stock-bond seesaw" effect [3][4]. - Zhang Lu notes that the odds for investing in interest rate bonds have changed compared to last year, suggesting that pursuing win rates may be a better strategy in the current environment [3]. Future Outlook - Zhang Lu believes that if monetary policy remains accommodative and there are no unexpected external disturbances, the overall pressure on the bond market will be manageable, likely maintaining a volatile pattern [4]. - The "stock withdrawal" effect has caused fluctuations in the liability side of fixed income products, necessitating continuous optimization of the liability structure to enhance the experience and returns for holders [4][5].