Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-08-25 00:54Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities indicates that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank summit aligns with previous expectations, emphasizing the downside risks in the labor market and reiterating the view from the July meeting that "tariff inflation is transitory," paving the way for a rate cut in September [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points [1] - The Fed has abandoned the average inflation targeting framework, returning to a flexible inflation targeting approach, with revised language emphasizing attention to "two-sided" employment market risks [1] Market Implications - Following Powell's dovish remarks, the main theme of "rate cut trading" in the U.S. stock market has been clarified, with a "catch-up" trading logic expected to dominate the upcoming market [1] - Similar to the "rate cut trading" in July 2024, sectors sensitive to interest rates such as Russell 2000, S&P 500 Real Estate, and Nasdaq Biotechnology may experience upward trends again [1] Currency and Bond Market - There remains a gap between market expectations for two rate cuts this year and the company's forecast of three [1] - It is anticipated that U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index will have slight downward space [1] Global Equity Market - Powell's dovish comments and a weaker dollar are expected to boost global equity market risk appetite [1] Gold Market - Rate cut expectations are likely to support gold prices, although caution is advised regarding potential negative impacts from a possible agreement between Russia and Ukraine [1]