Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-25 01:01Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a significant increase in VLCC TCE rates, reflecting supply constraints and the impact of OPEC+ production increases, with expectations for further demand boost as the peak season approaches [1] Group 1: VLCC TCE Rate Changes - As of August 24, 2025, VLCC TCE rates increased by 31.7% to $45,800 per day, with VLCC TD3C (Middle East to China) TCE rising by 15.7% [1] - VLCC freight rates have shown continuous high growth for three consecutive weeks since early August, with year-on-year growth turning positive [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The improvement in freight rates during the off-season reflects tightening supply and the effects of OPEC+ production increases, with a planned increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September, completing the original plan a year early [1] - The increase in VLCC cargo volumes is expected to resonate with peak season demand [1] Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply side is facing challenges due to increased sanctioned capacity and efficiency losses from aging vessels, which may accelerate the clearing of older ships if black and gray market trading windows narrow further [1] - Overall, the short-term effects of OPEC+ production increases are expected to continue influencing cargo demand, while mid-term attention should be on changes in Iranian crude oil exports and their impact on compliant demand [1]