高温带动7月用电超预期原煤产量大幅转负

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in electricity consumption in July 2025, with total electricity usage surpassing 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, marking an 8.6% year-on-year growth [1][2][3] Electricity Sector - July 2025 saw a total electricity consumption of 10,226 billion kilowatt-hours, with the first, second, and third industries and urban-rural residents accounting for 1.7%, 58.0%, 20.4%, and 19.9% of the total, respectively [1][2] - The growth in electricity consumption is attributed to high temperatures, with the national average temperature reaching a historical high since 1961, leading to increased demand across various sectors [2][3] - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to July 2025 grew by 4.5% year-on-year, with the first, second, and third industries and urban-rural residents showing respective growth rates of 10.8%, 2.8%, 7.8%, and 7.6% [1][2] Coal Sector - In July 2025, raw coal production experienced a year-on-year decline of 3.8%, marking the first negative growth in nearly two years, primarily due to the "overproduction check" policy implemented by the National Energy Administration [5][6] - Coal imports fell significantly, with July 2025 imports at 35.61 million tons, a decrease of 22.9% year-on-year, and a cumulative decline of 13.0% for the first seven months of the year [6][7] - The domestic coal price has been under pressure, leading to a self-induced contraction in supply, with expectations that the price may stabilize above 700 yuan per ton, which could mark a new equilibrium in the coal market [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on long-term investments in hydropower and undervalued green energy stocks, as well as short to medium-term investments in resilient leading companies such as China Resources Power, Longyuan Power, and Chuanwei Energy [3][4][7] - Specific companies to watch include Xin Zhu Co., Ltd. and Yuanda Environmental Protection [4]