鲍威尔放鸽+关税扰动 黄金回撤蓄力仍看反弹

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is characterized by multiple factors providing support for gold prices, including expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical uncertainties [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold is currently trading around $3,363.28 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.24% [1]. - The highest price reached was $3,371.39 per ounce, while the lowest was $3,362.88 per ounce during the trading session [1]. - The dollar index experienced a significant drop last Friday, breaking its recent upward trend and key support levels, which has strengthened bearish sentiment [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium have reinforced market expectations for a rate cut in September, which is seen as a positive for the gold market [2][3]. - There is a general expectation among officials for two rate cuts within the year, with a high likelihood of a September cut [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - President Trump's plans to impose tariffs on furniture products and potential tariffs on semiconductors, which could be as high as 300%, are expected to further support gold prices [2]. - Ongoing uncertainties regarding a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine continue to create a favorable environment for gold [2]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices will trend upward over the next year, driven by strong structural demand from central banks and the anticipated shift towards more accommodative monetary policies by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession within the next 12 months is estimated at 30%, which could further enhance gold's appeal as a long-term investment [3]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently experiencing a corrective phase after a significant rise, with expectations of a rebound following this adjustment [4]. - Key support levels to watch include $3,270 and $3,220, which may provide buying opportunities if tested [4][5].