计划外装置停车增加 9月PTA去库存预期较强、现货基差或继续走强

Core Viewpoint - The PTA spot market has risen to a monthly high in late August due to destocking expectations combined with cost support, with a strong expectation for further destocking in September [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In late August, the domestic PTA spot market reached a monthly high, driven by destocking expectations and cost support [1]. - The restart of a 2.2 million ton PTA plant in East China followed by its shutdown, along with unplanned shutdowns of a 5 million ton PTA plant in South China, led to a decrease in estimated PTA production to around 6.15 million tons, accelerating destocking [1][3]. - Market rumors about potential reductions in naphtha production in South Korea have positively influenced PX prices, indirectly supporting PTA prices [1]. Group 2: September Outlook - Despite uncertainties regarding the duration of shutdowns in South China, there is a strong overall expectation for PTA destocking in September [3]. - Current September offers are priced at a premium of 20-40 yuan per ton over futures, confirming market speculation [3]. - Two scenarios for PTA production in September are outlined: if the South China plant shuts down for over a month, production could be estimated at 6.23 million tons with a destocking of 370,000 tons; if it shuts down for two weeks, production could be 6.46 million tons with a destocking of 140,000 tons [3]. Group 3: Cost and Demand Factors - As of August 21, the average PTA processing fee for August was 196 yuan per ton, indicating production losses, with expectations for further unplanned maintenance in September [3]. - The downstream polyester market is transitioning from a demand off-season to a peak season, with expectations for demand recovery during the "golden September and silver October" period, despite potential reductions in FDY production by major manufacturers [3][5]. - The future price increase of PTA is expected to be influenced by cost factors, particularly the negotiations between the US and Russia regarding oil prices, which could limit the extent of PTA price increases [5].