美国钢铝关税扩围，钢价有所承压

Price Summary - Steel prices have decreased this week, with Shanghai 20mm HRB400 rebar priced at 3270 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from last week [1][2] - High-line 8.0mm is priced at 3420 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton [1][2] - Hot-rolled 3.0mm is at 3420 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton [1][2] - Cold-rolled 1.0mm is priced at 3830 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton [1][2] - Common medium plate 20mm is at 3470 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton [1][2] - Domestic ore prices are stable to rising, while imported ore prices are stable to falling, and scrap steel prices have decreased [2] Profit Analysis - Steel profits have declined this week, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins changing by -58 CNY/ton, -50 CNY/ton, and -42 CNY/ton respectively [2] - Electric arc furnace steel margins have decreased by -34 CNY/ton [2] Production and Inventory - Total production of five major steel products reached 8.78 million tons, an increase of 64,300 tons week-on-week [3] - Construction steel production decreased by 37,100 tons week-on-week, while plate production increased by 101,400 tons [3] - Rebar production decreased by 58,000 tons to 2.1465 million tons [3] - Total social inventory of five major steel products increased by 264,300 tons to 10.1621 million tons [3] - Steel mill inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 4.2383 million tons [3] - Apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 1.948 million tons, an increase of 48,600 tons week-on-week [3] Investment Recommendations - The expansion of U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs has put pressure on steel prices [4] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has extended tariffs to 407 categories of steel and aluminum derivatives, affecting most downstream steel manufacturing [4] - Seasonal demand weakness and a vacuum in supply-side policies have led to a significant narrowing of steel mill profits [4] - Long-term capacity management remains a key focus, with a combination of market-oriented and administrative measures expected to optimize crude steel supply [4] - Recommended stocks include: - General steel sector: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel [4] - Special steel sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. [4] - Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel [4] - Suggested focus on high-temperature alloy stocks: Fushun Special Steel [4]