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7月顺丰业务量增速领跑,油运景气度拐点向上 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-08-25 02:47

Group 1: Express Delivery Industry - In July, SF Express achieved a business volume growth rate of 34%, leading among all express companies [1][2] - During the week of August 11-17, the total collection volume of postal express was approximately 3.523 billion pieces, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.06% and a year-on-year increase of 11.81% [1][2] - The total delivery volume during the same week was about 3.511 billion pieces, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.09% and a year-on-year increase of 15.11% [1][2] - By July 2025, the year-on-year business volume growth rates for SF Express, Yunda, YTO, and Shentong are projected to be 33.7%, 7.6%, 20.8%, and 11.9% respectively, with market shares of 8.4%, 13.2%, 15.8%, and 13.3% [1][2] - The "anti-involution" trend has led to price increases in several grain-producing areas, and with the peak season approaching, it is expected that the price per express delivery will rise [1][2] Group 2: Logistics Sector - The chemical product price index (CCPI) in China is currently at 4024 points, showing a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [3] - The domestic sea freight price for liquid chemicals is 158 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% [3] - The operational rates for paraxylene (PX), methanol, and ethylene glycol are 84.6%, 80.7%, and 65.1% respectively, with varying year-on-year changes [3] - The establishment of the "Haimorning Artificial Intelligence Research Institute" and "Haimorning Robotics Research Institute" aims to focus on advanced technologies in logistics [3] - The airline sector is experiencing an increase in average daily flights, with a year-on-year growth of 4.18% [3] Group 3: Shipping Industry - The crude oil transportation index has increased, while the domestic shipping index continues to rise [4] - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1174.87 points, with a year-on-year decrease of 40.5% [4] - The domestic container freight index (PDCI) is at 1091 points, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [4] - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping is at 1950 points, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [4] - The oil transportation sector is expected to see a demand boost due to OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical factors [4] Group 4: Road, Rail, and Port Operations - The total cargo throughput at ports decreased by 2.8% week-on-week, but increased by 3.8% year-on-year [5] - The total container throughput was 6.75 million TEUs, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [5] - The total number of trucks passing through highways was 54.93 million, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.06% and a year-on-year increase of 4.65% [5] - The dividend yield of major highway operators is currently higher than the yield of China's ten-year government bonds, indicating attractive investment opportunities [5]