加拿大央行降息概率飙升

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to weak CPI data, which has increased expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada [1] Economic Data Impact - The USD/CAD exchange rate has rebounded, currently reported at 1.3842, with a gain of 0.11% [1] - Weak Canadian CPI data has significantly impacted the Canadian dollar's performance, reinforcing market expectations for a rate cut [1] - The upcoming second-quarter GDP data will be closely watched, as its performance will coincide with the U.S. PCE core inflation data [1] Interest Rate Expectations - Investors currently estimate a 33% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of Canada at the meeting on September 17 [1] - By December, the likelihood of a rate cut is expected to rise to 90% [1] - A weak performance in the second-quarter GDP data could further solidify the rationale for another rate cut by the Bank of Canada before the end of the year, potentially leading to additional selling pressure on the Canadian dollar [1]