欧洲央行9月或按兵不动 降息大门尚未关上

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained interest rates steady, with market speculation about a long-term pause in rate cuts following hawkish comments from President Lagarde and a trade agreement between the EU and the US [1] - Investor expectations for a rate cut by the ECB before the end of the year have decreased to 10 basis points, with a 45% probability of a 25 basis point cut before December [1][2] - The ECB is likely to keep rates unchanged in the September meeting, but may reconsider further cuts if economic weakness is observed [1][2] Group 2 - Recent data indicates that the Eurozone economy is showing unexpected resilience, with inflation hovering near the ECB's 2% target [2] - Unless upcoming inflation data and economic activity surveys show unexpected deterioration, the necessity for a rate cut on September 11 is low [2] - The ECB's latest economic forecasts have included considerations for further rate cuts, predicting that inflation may temporarily fall below the 2% target next year [2] Group 3 - The ECB may revisit monetary policy easing during meetings on October 30 and December 18, especially if US tariffs negatively impact Eurozone exports or geopolitical risks escalate [3] - The euro to dollar exchange rate showed support above 1.1580 and resistance below 1.1745, indicating potential for an upward trend if it stabilizes above 1.1680 [3] - Short-term resistance for the euro is identified between 1.1780 and 1.1785, with significant support between 1.1680 and 1.1685 [3]