格林大华期货：美国违胀数反复 短期抑制金价

Macro Messages - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a shift in risk balance, suggesting an increase in downside risks to employment, which may necessitate a policy adjustment [1] - Following Powell's speech, traders increased bets on a rate cut in September, fully pricing in two rate cuts by the end of the year [1] - ANZ Bank reported that Powell correctly identified the risk of a rapid weakening in the U.S. labor market, making a return to monetary easing necessary [1] - Early data suggests that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices may be temporary, supporting a gradual easing stance [1] - ANZ stated that Powell's speech paved the way for a 25 basis point rate cut in the September Federal Reserve meeting [1] Institutional Views - Non-farm payroll data contradicted the strong employment market narrative, significantly raising expectations for a September rate cut [1] - CPI data fell below market expectations, reinforcing the anticipation of a rate cut in September, although core CPI reached a new high since February [1] - The PPI for July also exceeded expectations, creating uncertainty around a potential 50 basis point cut in September, with the market now generally betting on a 25 basis point cut [1] - Despite a hawkish tone from global central bank speeches, the market remains cautious [1] - Factors such as the onset of a rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, easing global trade tensions, and continued gold purchases by global central banks are supportive of gold prices [1] - U.S. inflation data remains volatile, and the unclear effects of tariffs on inflation may suppress gold prices in the short term [1]