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箭牌家居(001322):智能产品驱动增长 盈利能力环比改善

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to weak domestic demand and changes in the international economic environment, although there was a significant improvement compared to the previous quarter [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 28.44 million yuan, down 25.2%. The non-recurring net profit was 14.29 million yuan, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 1.79 billion yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 100 million yuan, a decrease of 20.9%. The non-recurring net profit was 97.59 million yuan, down 18.1% year-on-year [1]. - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 29.5%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin smart toilets and an increase in retail channel share [1]. Business Segment Performance - Domestic retail business performed well, while international sales were impacted by changes in the international economic environment. In H1 2025, revenue from retail, e-commerce, home decoration, and engineering channels was 1.13 billion, 580 million, 460 million, and 550 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +4.0%, -7.9%, -3.5%, and -21.4% [2]. - Revenue from domestic markets was 2.76 billion yuan, down 5.5%, while overseas revenue was 73.58 million yuan, down 54.7%. The company saw significant revenue growth in markets outside North America, but exports to North America declined due to the international economic environment [2]. Product Performance - Traditional product categories faced pressure, while smart toilets drove growth. In H1 2025, revenue from sanitary ceramics, faucets, bathroom furniture, bathtubs, and tiles was 1.36 billion, 840 million, 340 million, 120 million, and 120 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -13.3%, +0.7%, +1.5%, -20.4%, and -10.0% respectively [3]. - The gross margins for major products improved, with sanitary ceramics at 29.6%, faucets at 28.4%, bathroom furniture at 27.5%, bathtubs at 41%, and tiles at 18.4% [3]. - Revenue from smart toilets was 660 million yuan, an increase of 4.2% year-on-year, accounting for 23.3% of total revenue, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company forecasts EPS of 0.23 yuan, 0.26 yuan, and 0.31 yuan for 2025-2027, with current market capitalization corresponding to PE ratios of 41x, 35x, and 30x respectively. Given the company's strong brand barriers and increasing self-manufacturing rate, there is optimism for marginal performance recovery, maintaining a "hold" rating [3].