国际油价窄幅区间波动 本轮成品油零售限价下调预期浓厚

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil in China is expected to decrease due to the sustained negative change rate of international crude oil prices during the current pricing cycle [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle (from August 12 to August 26), international crude oil prices have fluctuated within the range of 63-66 USD per barrel, influenced by geopolitical factors and economic expectations [1]. - The change rate of reference crude oil as of August 22 was -4.41%, indicating a potential reduction in gasoline and diesel prices by approximately 190 CNY per ton [1]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Industries - If the price reduction is confirmed, private car owners filling a 50L tank will save about 7.5 CNY, while a typical fuel-efficient car running 2000 km per month will see a decrease in fuel costs of around 12 CNY before the next pricing window [2]. - For the logistics industry, a heavy truck running 10,000 km per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 km will experience a reduction in fuel costs of approximately 304 CNY before the next pricing window [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there are risks associated with geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia, the international oil price may still find some support due to these factors [2]. - The possibility of a positive change rate in the next pricing cycle is anticipated, influenced by OPEC's production decisions and the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation [2].