Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed significant gains on August 25, with lead futures experiencing a slight upward trend, closing at 16,865.00 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [1] Supply Side - According to Ruida Futures, primary lead smelters maintain a strong operating rate compared to recycled lead, benefiting from stable by-product revenues. However, fluctuations in lead prices have led some primary lead smelters to adjust production decisions, resulting in slight variations in primary lead output. The supply of recycled lead shows regional disparities, with tight supply of waste battery raw materials and insufficient confidence among smelters, leading to a generally tight supply situation [1] Demand Side - Changjiang Futures noted that lead concentrate prices fell by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, while spot lead ingot prices dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and the recycling price of used batteries decreased by 75 yuan/ton. In July, domestic imports of lead ore significantly increased compared to June, with refined lead imports experiencing exponential growth. However, production by downstream enterprises, particularly in the automotive sector, decreased by 29.84 million units in July compared to June, putting downward pressure on spot lead prices [1] Inventory - According to Xinhuh Futures, as of last Thursday, social inventory of lead ingots continued to decline by 0.11 million tons to 69,900 tons. Last Tuesday, LME lead inventory saw a significant delivery of 22,000 tons, and domestic import losses have rapidly narrowed [1] Market Outlook - Zhonghui Futures anticipates that with expectations of overseas interest rate cuts and a relatively loose domestic lead supply situation, primary lead production is expected to recover. However, the production of recycled lead remains moderate, and there is insufficient order volume from downstream battery manufacturers, leading to a short-term stabilization in lead prices [1]
总体供给端方面偏紧 预计沪铅期货短期企稳走势
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-25 07:00