智通财经网·2025-08-25 07:26Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities highlights the rapid development of intelligent computing center interconnection technology, transitioning from 400G to 1.6T, driven by the increasing capital expenditure (Capex) of global CSP manufacturers and the AI chip industry [1] Group 1: CSP Capital Expenditure and AI Development - The AI arms race among CSP internet cloud manufacturers has entered its 2.0 era, with rapid iterations in intelligent computing center interconnection technology [1] - From 2023, following the launch of ChatGPT 3.5, major tech companies are significantly investing in large model research and intelligent computing center construction, with expected Capex for Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta to reach $361 billion by 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 58% [1] - Domestic companies like ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are projected to exceed 360 billion yuan in Capex [1] Group 2: AI Chip Development and Performance - Leading AI chip company NVIDIA is accelerating the iteration of its AI chip performance, with chip architecture upgrades shifting from every four years to every two years [2] - Over the past three years, AI computing clusters have expanded from 64 AI chips to configurations of 256, 288, and even 576 chips, with network connection speeds evolving from 400G to 1.6T [2] - The development of intelligent computing center interconnection technology, including optical communication and copper connections, is significantly benefiting from the growth of the AI industry [2] Group 3: Self-Developed ASIC Chips and Computing Clusters - Google has been developing its self-designed ASIC chip TPU since 2015, currently planning its seventh generation, utilizing a unique OCS all-optical switching architecture since TPUv4 [3] - Amazon's self-developed Trainium chip is progressing to its third generation, with the Trainium2 cluster using AEC copper cable connections and the upcoming Trainium3 cluster planning to use copper backplane connections [3] - META has designed its MTIA chip and has extensive experience in data center architecture, having developed the well-known CLOS architecture [3] Group 4: Growth in Optical Communication and Copper Connection Markets - The shipment volume of ASIC chips is expected to increase, with global shipments of 800G optical modules projected to reach 40 million units and 1.6T optical modules exceeding 7 million units next year [4] - By 2029, the penetration rate of CPO is expected to reach 50%, with the OCS market projected to exceed $1.6 billion and the PCIe Switch market expected to reach $5 billion [4]