鲍威尔放“鸽”助力金价大涨，技术整理态势或接近尾声

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a strong upward trend last week, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - During the week of August 18-22, spot gold opened at $3337.81 per ounce, peaked at $3378.75, and closed at $3371.54, marking a weekly increase of $35.81 or 1.07% [1]. - Despite initial pressure on gold prices due to a cooling expectation for a significant rate cut in September, Powell's remarks led to a rebound, reversing the downward trend observed earlier in the week [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Powell indicated that while there are inflationary risks, the Fed may still consider rate cuts in the coming months, increasing market bets on a September rate cut to 85% from 72% earlier in the week [2]. - The July meeting minutes revealed a split among Fed officials, with most viewing inflation risks as more severe than labor market weaknesses, while a few expressed concerns about the job market [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to influence market sentiment and gold prices [4][5]. - Recent discussions among U.S. and European leaders have not significantly improved the negotiation outlook, with potential territorial concessions for Ukraine being hinted at [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Gold prices have been fluctuating within a high range, with seasonal demand from major Asian markets remaining subdued, although some buying activity was noted ahead of a significant festival in India [6]. - Speculative long positions in gold futures decreased, with a reported reduction of 12,468 contracts to 141,758 contracts as of August 19 [6]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold prices have recovered above the 10, 20, and 30-day moving averages, suggesting potential for further upward movement, although key resistance levels remain at $3400-$3420 and $3453 per ounce [7]. - Support levels are identified at $3360-$3340 and $3320-$3300 per ounce, with a break below these levels indicating potential downside risks [7].