秋季肥需求支撑表现不佳 尿素盘面震荡偏弱运行

Core Viewpoints - The urea futures market is experiencing a slight decline, influenced by market sentiment and export factors [1][2][3] - Domestic demand for urea is weak due to the agricultural off-season and reduced production of compound fertilizers [1][2][3] - Export activities are ongoing, contributing to increased port inventories and affecting the overall supply-demand balance [2][3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Movement - Urea futures main contract showed a minor decline of 0.17%, closing at 1745.00 yuan, with a low of 1735.00 yuan during the trading session [1] - Market sentiment and export news have significantly impacted the urea price trend, leading to a continuous drop in the market [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The agricultural demand for urea is currently in a low season, and the production of compound fertilizers is not providing substantial support to urea prices [1][2] - Port inventories have increased slightly, with upstream urea enterprises continuing to accumulate stock [3] - The overall domestic demand for urea lacks support, with the main variable being export activities [2][3] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - The price of urea is expected to maintain a range-bound movement until substantial positive factors emerge [2] - The lower price space for urea is considered limited due to rising coal prices and low production profits [2] - Short-term forecasts suggest a weak oscillation in the urea market, with support levels identified between 1700-1730 yuan/ton [3]