供应过剩格局尚未转变 预计甲醇价格震荡为主

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol futures market is experiencing slight upward movement, with the main contract closing at 2424.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a minor increase of 0.58% [1] Supply - New Lake Futures indicates that domestic upstream production is higher year-on-year, with maintenance plans still in place for August. July's imports were significantly affected by unexpected factors, and expectations for arrivals in August have increased substantially [1] Demand - According to Ruida Futures, last week saw stable operations across various olefin facilities. The restart of the Shaanxi Yanchang Coal's Yulin Phase II facility has led to increased operational loads, and the Sinopec Zhongyuan olefin facility is expected to restart this week, indicating an overall increase in industry operations [1] Inventory - As of August 21, methanol inventory at East China ports stood at 572,600 tons, up from 563,300 tons the previous week, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 930 tons [1] Market Outlook - Donghai Futures suggests that with the restart of domestic facilities and concentrated arrivals, prices are under pressure. The decline in port prices is expected to open a return window, providing some support for the spot market. Additionally, the planned restart of MTO facilities and the upcoming traditional peak season indicate marginal improvements in the methanol fundamentals, although the oversupply situation remains unchanged, leading to expectations of price fluctuations [1]