重阳问答︱如何看待近期M1增速持续回升

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in M1 growth in China is primarily driven by significant increases in both corporate and household demand deposits, indicating a shift in asset allocation amidst a low interest rate environment [2][3]. Group 1: M1 Growth Drivers - M1 growth in July reached a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, continuing the upward trend since the fourth quarter of last year [1]. - The rise in M1 is largely attributed to a substantial increase in corporate and household demand deposits, with corporate demand deposits recovering significantly after a period of decline due to regulatory changes [2]. - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, with over 1.88 trillion yuan in special bonds issued to date, contributing to the recovery of corporate demand deposits [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The sustainability of M1 growth will depend on the internal economic momentum, with the current increase being different from previous cycles that were driven by real estate [3]. - The low interest rate and low base effect from the previous year will continue to influence M1 growth until October, after which economic fundamentals will play a more significant role [3]. - Current policies are aimed at stabilizing confidence and improving corporate cash flow, but their effectiveness in stimulating real investment and consumer willingness remains to be seen [3]. Group 3: Market Impact - The reallocation of assets by both corporations and households suggests that there is ample off-market liquidity, which could enhance overall market liquidity [3].