并购需求积压、A股估值抬升 普华永道：下半年并购市场将更活跃

Core Insights - The demand for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and the backlog of planned exit projects have significantly accumulated, alongside a recovery in capital market sentiment, leading to expectations of a more active M&A market in the second half of the year, with a projected high double-digit growth in total transaction value for 2025 compared to 2024 [2] Group 1: M&A Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the disclosed total transaction value of China's M&A market exceeded $170 billion, representing a substantial 45% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - The number of transactions continued a steady upward trend observed over the past two and a half years, with domestic M&A transaction value surpassing $100 billion, showing over a 100% year-on-year growth [2] - Notably, there were 20 large-scale M&A transactions (each exceeding $1 billion), significantly outpacing the same period last year [2] Group 2: Factors Driving M&A Activity - The sustained increase in domestic strategic investor M&A activity is attributed to multiple positive factors, including the launch of DeepSeek AI, which revitalized the high-tech sector and positively impacted the overall economic environment [3] - The recovery of valuations in the Hong Kong capital market and the revival of the IPO market have created a favorable financial environment for M&A activities [3] - Core industries' value chain integration among A-share listed state-owned enterprises has further stimulated M&A market activity [3] Group 3: Private Equity and Investment Trends - Venture capital remains a significant highlight, with M&A transaction volumes in emerging technology sectors like AI and robotics continuing to grow and maintain historically high levels [3] - Private equity fund exit activities are also active, with investors seeking exit opportunities through M&A transactions to realize capital appreciation [3] - M&A transactions have become the primary exit method for private equity funds, with a notable trend of exits via listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, potentially leading to the best performance year in the past decade [3] Group 4: International M&A Activity - Although Chinese enterprises' overseas M&A activity remained weak in the first half of 2025, signs of recovery have been observed, with three large-scale overseas M&A transactions occurring in major European markets [4] - Europe continues to be the most important overseas investment destination for Chinese enterprises [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - Several positive factors are expected to drive continued M&A market activity in the second half of the year, including A-share listed companies pursuing growth through M&A, signs of economic recovery, and renewed investor confidence in the technology sector [4] - The strong performance of the Hong Kong capital market is anticipated to boost valuations and create exit opportunities, while growing overseas investment demand, particularly in Southeast Asia, is also notable [4] - China remains an attractive investment destination, with some capital shifting from the U.S., and multinational companies reassessing their business strategies in China, which may lead to increased transaction activity [4]