“股债双牛”再现 机构称债券配置性价比正在修复

Group 1 - The capital market has temporarily escaped the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, showing a "dual bull" trend in both stocks and bonds on August 25 [1][2] - A-shares saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.51% to 3883.56 points, marking the highest close since August 18, 2015 [2] - The bond market also experienced a substantial increase, with the 30-year government bond yield falling below 2.0%, indicating an improvement in the cost-effectiveness of bond allocation [1][2] Group 2 - The bond market's attractiveness for allocation is increasing, with historical analysis suggesting that a bull market in stocks does not necessarily indicate a turning point for bonds [5] - Recent adjustments have shown that short-term government bond yields have increased less than long-term yields, with the 1-year and 3-year yields rising by 3 and 7 basis points, respectively [5] - The yield spread between the 10-year government bond and dividend yield is approaching the three-year average, indicating a rapid recovery in bond allocation value [5] Group 3 - The downward movement of bond yields aligns with other interest rates, with a general decline of around 70 basis points observed since 2024 [6] - The recent auction of new government bonds showed that the market has largely completed the initial pricing of new and old bonds, with the 30-year bond issued at a yield of 2.15% [6] - Analysts expect that if the bond market continues to adjust, the buying power from allocation and central bank liquidity will provide support against rising interest rates [6] Group 4 - Some institutions predict that the sensitivity of the bond market to the stock market will decrease, as the stock market's strong performance has created pressure on the bond market [7] - The long-term interest rates are not expected to rise continuously even if the stock market continues to increase, indicating a potential shift in trading logic for the bond market [7] - The adjustment limits for the 10-year and 30-year government bonds are projected to be around 1.75%-1.8% and 2.05%-2.1%, respectively [7]