每日机构分析：8月25日

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Pimco's global economic advisor, Richard Clarida, indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to cautiously lower policy rates soon, reaffirming its commitment to its dual mandate while making only minor clarifications to its monetary policy framework [1] - Barclays and BNP Paribas predict a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, citing a shift in Powell's stance on employment market risks [2] - Moody's chief economist, Mark Zandi, warns of increasing economic downturn risks in the U.S., with a 49% probability of recession within the next year [2] Group 2: Bond Market Predictions - Citigroup maintains its forecast for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to reach 4.10% by year-end, while adjusting other benchmarks to align with expectations for a steeper curve and lower policy rates [2] - The new basic predictions for U.S. Treasury yields include 3.50% for the 2-year, 3.65% for the 5-year, and 4.70% for the 30-year [2] Group 3: International Monetary Policy - The Bank of Korea is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting, with a majority of economists predicting no adjustment [3] - eToro analysts suggest that Singapore's Monetary Authority may ease monetary policy following July's CPI data indicating cooling inflation [3]