明晚 成品油价可能要下调

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease significantly due to the ongoing weak performance of international crude oil prices, with a predicted reduction exceeding 190 yuan per ton [2][3]. Price Adjustment Overview - The new round of domestic refined oil retail price adjustments is set for August 26, with expectations of a price cut based on the current international crude oil price trends [1]. - Since the beginning of 2025, there have been sixteen rounds of price adjustments, resulting in a cumulative decrease of 225 yuan per ton for gasoline and 215 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the end of last year [3][4]. Market Analysis - The current pricing cycle has seen a negative change rate of -4.41% for the reference crude oil, leading to an anticipated reduction of 0.15 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.16 yuan per liter for 0-octane diesel [2]. - The wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have also declined, with 92-octane gasoline averaging 7873 yuan per ton (down 0.44%) and 0-octane diesel at 6737 yuan per ton (down 0.71%) as of August 22 [5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The "OPEC+" group is expected to maintain a significant production increase of 548,000 barrels per day, which may influence the international crude oil market negatively [2]. - Despite the ongoing summer travel peak in the U.S. boosting fuel demand, overall global economic data remains weak, potentially constraining future demand for crude oil [2][5].