Bumble's Customer Retention Rate Slips: Is Growth Getting Harder?

Core Insights - Bumble (BMBL) shares fell 8% in after-hours trading following Q2 2025 earnings, highlighting customer retention issues with paying users down 8.7% to 3.8 million and revenues of $248 million, a 7.6% year-over-year decline [1][9] User Retention Challenges - Total users decreased from approximately 58 million in 2023 to 50 million by mid-2025, while paying users on the Bumble app fell 11% to 2.5 million [2] - Average revenue per paying user increased by 1% to $21.69, but this slight gain does not compensate for the loss of subscribers [2] - Management's shift towards prioritizing quality over quantity has had mixed results, with full-price payers now making up 80% of total subscribers, up from 70% in Q1, yet overall user attrition is accelerating [2] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA rose 26% to $94.6 million, achieving a 38.1% margin due to aggressive cost-cutting measures, including a 30% workforce reduction and $100 million in expense cuts [3] - The company holds $262 million in cash and generated $71 million in quarterly cash flow [3] Future Guidance - Q3 guidance indicates further revenue decline, projected between $240 million and $248 million, reflecting a 9% to 12% year-over-year decrease [4][9] - Management did not provide full-year 2025 guidance, acknowledging the need for several quarters to rebuild momentum [4] Competitive Landscape - Match Group (MTCH) and Grindr (GRND) are experiencing similar user retention challenges, but Match Group maintains over 16 million paying users across its brands, showing greater resilience [5] - Grindr's focus on the LGBTQ+ segment may insulate it from broader market trends affecting mainstream apps, while Match Group's diversified approach helps mitigate single-app volatility [6] Share Price and Valuation - Bumble's shares have dropped 21.9% year-to-date, contrasting with the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's growth of 12.5% and the Zacks Internet - Software industry's 19.3% return [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 revenues is $244.56 million, indicating a 10.62% year-over-year decline, with earnings expected to rise 11.43% to $0.39 per share [11] - Bumble trades at a forward P/E of approximately 18.8x, significantly below the Zacks Internet - Software industry average of 38.87x [12]