多重因素驱动人民币走强 “双向波动”仍是主基调

Core Viewpoint - The onshore RMB against the USD strengthened significantly on August 25, closing at 7.1517, an increase of 288 basis points from the previous trading day, driven by multiple factors including a weaker USD index, a substantial adjustment in the central parity rate, and improved capital market sentiment [2][3]. Group 1: Factors Supporting RMB Strength - The RMB/USD exchange rate surged, breaking through multiple key levels, with a closing price of 7.1517, marking a new high since November 2024 [3]. - The weakening of the USD index, influenced by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, provided upward momentum for the RMB. The USD index fell below 98, decreasing by 0.94% on August 22 [3]. - The central parity rate for RMB against USD was significantly raised by 160 points to 7.1161, the highest since November of the previous year, which positively impacted both domestic and foreign trading prices [4]. Group 2: Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate is expected to exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation, influenced by both internal and external factors. The future trajectory of the USD index remains a critical variable for the global forex market [5]. - The potential for further USD weakness due to Fed rate cuts could benefit the RMB, but uncertainties regarding the continuity of rate cuts may affect the USD's performance [5]. - Domestic economic trends play a crucial role in determining the RMB exchange rate, with the possibility of increased foreign capital inflows contributing to RMB appreciation [6].