国际能源署报告显示—— 供过于求加剧国际石油市场失衡

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global oil demand growth of 680,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a downward revision of 20,000 bpd from the previous month, and 700,000 bpd in 2026 [1] - The IEA has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 by 370,000 bpd, expecting a total increase of 2.5 million bpd this year and an upward revision of 620,000 bpd to 1.9 million bpd in 2026 [1] - The report indicates that the supply growth will significantly outpace demand growth in the coming years, leading to a worsening imbalance in the international oil market [1] Group 2 - In July, global oil supply remained stable at 105.6 million bpd, with OPEC+ countries reducing output by 230,000 bpd, offset by increases from non-OPEC+ producers [2] - OPEC+ members agreed to increase production by an additional 547,000 bpd in September, indicating a full reversal of the 2.2 million bpd reduction agreement reached in November 2023 [2] - Global crude processing reached a record high of 85.6 million bpd in August, with expectations of a year-on-year increase of 1.6 million bpd in Q3 2025, significantly higher than the average growth of 130,000 bpd in the first half of this year [2] Group 3 - Global oil inventories increased for the fifth consecutive month in June, rising by 28.1 million barrels to a total of 7.836 billion barrels, the highest level in 46 months [3] - The report highlights that the international oil market is influenced by multiple factors, including new sanctions on Russia and Iran, which could severely impact oil trade flows [3] - Brent crude oil futures fluctuated around $70 per barrel throughout July, with volatility dropping to historical lows, but fell below $67 per barrel following OPEC+ production agreements in early August [3]