Zheng Quan Zhi Xing·2025-08-26 00:08Core Viewpoint - The company is undergoing a deep adjustment, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, but is expected to benefit from reforms in the future, maintaining a buy rating [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 14.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.34 billion yuan, down 45.3% year-on-year [2]. - In 2Q25, revenue and net profit were 3.73 billion yuan and 710 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 43.7% and 62.7% [2]. - The company’s sales volume and price per ton in 1H25 decreased by 32.4% and 4.6% year-on-year, respectively [3]. Product and Channel Analysis - Revenue from products priced above 100 yuan and below 100 yuan in 1H25 decreased by 36.5% and 27.2% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - The company has been focusing on core products and managing inventory through various strategies since the second half of 2024, leading to improved channel inventory compared to previous periods [3]. - Revenue from the domestic market in 1H25 was 7.12 billion yuan, down 25.8% year-on-year, while revenue from the external market was 7.39 billion yuan, down 42.7% [3]. Profitability and Financial Stability - As of 1H25, the company’s contract liabilities stood at 5.88 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.15 billion yuan from the previous period [4]. - In 2Q25, the company’s gross profit margin was 73.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4 percentage points, leading to a net profit margin of 18.9%, down 9.6 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Valuation and Future Outlook - The company plans to launch the seventh generation of its product and high-end light bottle liquor to stabilize its consumer base in the second half of 2025 [5]. - The company has committed to a cash dividend of no less than 70% of net profit from 2024 to 2026, with a projected dynamic dividend yield of 6.4% for 2025 [5]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.32 billion yuan, 4.60 billion yuan, and 4.97 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -35.3%, +6.5%, and +8.2% [5].