中经评论：全球资本市场迎来调整窗口

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has indicated a potential interest rate cut in response to economic downturn risks, marking a significant shift in strategy for both the U.S. and global capital markets [1][2] - Following Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, market expectations for a September rate cut surged above 90%, leading to notable market reactions including a rise in U.S. stock indices and a decline in the dollar index [1][2] - Historically, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have led to cross-border capital reallocation and asset price reevaluation, but current global economic conditions present unique risks that may not follow past patterns [2][3] Group 2 - A rate cut could weaken the relative returns on dollar-denominated assets, prompting capital to flow towards emerging markets with higher growth potential, although this influx may create structural vulnerabilities in those markets [2][3] - The dollar index has fallen below the 100 mark, and further declines could impact global trade differently, benefiting resource-importing countries while challenging export-oriented economies [2][3] - The potential for a weakening dollar and the expansion of liquidity may inflate risk asset prices, but the effects will vary across markets, with U.S. equities, particularly tech stocks, already showing signs of overvaluation [3][4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates amidst persistent core inflation raises concerns about the long-term value of the dollar and may accelerate the process of "de-dollarization" globally [3][4] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under unprecedented pressure, with political influences potentially distorting policy decisions and increasing market volatility [4][5] - While rate cuts can stimulate economic recovery, they also introduce structural risks that could lead to debt crises if refinancing pressures arise due to unexpected shifts in interest rate trajectories [4][5]