供过于求加剧国际石油市场失衡

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports an expected increase in global oil demand of 680,000 barrels per day in 2025, a downward revision of 20,000 barrels per day from the previous month, and 700,000 barrels per day in 2026 [1] - Global oil supply growth expectations for 2025 have been raised by 370,000 barrels per day, with a projected increase of 2.5 million barrels per day for this year and an upward revision of 620,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day for 2026 [1] - The report indicates that the supply growth will significantly outpace demand growth in the coming years, leading to a worsening imbalance in the international oil market [1] Group 2 - In July, global oil supply remained stable at 105.6 million barrels per day, with OPEC+ countries reducing production by 230,000 barrels per day, offset by increases from non-OPEC+ producers [2] - OPEC+ members agreed to increase production by an additional 547,000 barrels per day in September, indicating a full reversal of the 2.2 million barrels per day reduction agreement reached in November 2023 [2] - Global crude processing reached a record high of 85.6 million barrels per day in August, with expectations of a year-on-year increase of 1.6 million barrels per day in Q3 2025, significantly higher than the average growth of 130,000 barrels per day in the first half of this year [2] Group 3 - Global oil inventories increased for the fifth consecutive month in June, rising by 28.1 million barrels to a total of 7.836 billion barrels, the highest level in 46 months [3] - The report highlights that international oil prices are influenced by multiple factors, including new sanctions on Russia and Iran, and threats from the U.S. to pressure major buyers of Russian oil [3] - Brent crude oil futures fluctuated around $70 per barrel throughout July, with volatility dropping to historical lows, but fell below $67 per barrel following OPEC+ production agreements in early August [3]