以史为鉴，若时隔9个月降息，美股有望开启新行情

Group 1: Market Reaction to Fed Signals - The market's risk appetite was significantly boosted following Fed Chair Powell's dovish signals at Jackson Hole, with expectations of a rate cut after a 9-month pause [1][4] - Historical data shows that in 11 instances where the Fed resumed rate cuts after a 5-12 month pause, the S&P 500 index rose in 10 cases, averaging a 12.9% increase over the next year [3] Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims rose to 1.972 million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating potential layoffs and a softening labor market [3] - The upcoming release of the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the August non-farm payroll report will be critical for assessing inflation and employment dynamics [6] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Sector Performance - Investors are currently focused on how many times the Fed will cut rates and the pace of these cuts, with concerns about the labor market outweighing inflation worries [7] - The technology sector is facing scrutiny, with a high P/E ratio of around 30, and warnings that 95% of companies investing in AI have not seen returns [7] - Small-cap stocks, particularly those with more floating-rate debt, are expected to benefit from lower interest rates, as evidenced by the Russell 2000 index outperforming major indices [8]