中金：不宜过度解读鲍威尔的“鸽派”言论

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22 is interpreted by the market as a "dovish" signal for monetary easing, but it should not be over-interpreted as a guarantee for rate cuts in the near future [1][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy Outlook - Powell's remarks indicate that the balance of risks is shifting, with downside risks to employment rising above inflation risks, suggesting a potential adjustment in monetary policy stance [3][4] - The market's expectation for a September rate cut increased from 75% to 89% following Powell's speech, reflecting a growing belief in a dovish shift [2] Employment and Inflation Risks - The current economic environment is characterized by higher tariffs and stricter immigration policies, which could exacerbate inflationary pressures while simultaneously posing risks to employment [1][4] - Powell emphasized that if inflation risks surpass employment risks, the Fed may halt rate cuts, indicating a complex policy landscape [4][6] Structural Economic Challenges - Powell highlighted that the economy faces structural shocks, and monetary policy may not effectively address these challenges, suggesting that rate cuts alone may not lead to substantial improvements in economic demand [7] - The Fed's new monetary policy framework emphasizes a balanced approach to achieving employment and price stability, moving away from a singular focus on average inflation targeting [4][9] Comparison of Powell's Speeches - Compared to his 2024 speech, Powell's current stance appears more cautious and less confident regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, reflecting a shift in the economic outlook [5][10] - The 2025 framework indicates a more flexible approach to inflation targeting, with a clear emphasis on the need to respond to deviations from both employment and inflation goals [9][10]