长江证券:中国宏桥(01378)最先成为高分红电解铝企业 维持“买入”评级
智通财经网·2025-08-26 02:02

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) has maintained a "buy" rating from Changjiang Securities, with a remarkable increase of 124.49% from the beginning of 2025 to August 22, 2025, ranking among the top ten in the non-ferrous sector for annual growth [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Since the low point in March 2020, China Hongqiao has achieved a cumulative increase of 1316.85% as of August 22, 2025, emerging strongly from the metal sector [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 35.02% year-on-year in the first half of the year, benefiting from a decline in coal prices and a low base from last year's impairment profits [1] - The average dividend yield from 2020 to 2024 is 10.48%, with a projected dividend yield of 13.69% for 2024, indicating a strong dividend attribute and improved cost-effectiveness for dividend allocation [1] Group 2: High Dividend Status - China Hongqiao is recognized as the first high-dividend electrolytic aluminum enterprise due to its leading position in raw materials, energy, and management costs, with operating cash flow increasing from 17.779 billion to 33.983 billion from 2020 to 2024 [2] - The company has a global integrated aluminum industry chain, effectively hedging against price fluctuations in different products, ensuring stable operating performance [2] - Capital expenditure has decreased, with capital expenditure to operating cash flow net ratio at approximately 38%, indicating potential for further downward adjustment [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to experience a dual boost in profitability and valuation, with the cycle transitioning through phases of interest rate changes, which may support economic recovery [3] - The average dividend yield of over 5% positions the electrolytic aluminum sector among the top dividend sectors in the market, with further growth potential as aluminum prices and dividends increase [3] - China Hongqiao is anticipated to lead the wave of profit and valuation recovery, with a projected annualized net profit of 24.72 billion based on the first half of the year, corresponding to a dividend yield of 7.09% [3]