Market Performance - Government bond futures closed significantly higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.78%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.27%, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.15%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.10% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds generally declined, with long-term bonds performing better than short-term ones. As of the report, the yield on the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" decreased by 4 basis points, the yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25 Policy Bank 10" fell by 2.85 basis points, and the yield on the 10-year government bond "25 Coupon Government Bond 11" dropped by 2.2 basis points [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate, quantity tender operation of 288.4 billion yuan for a 7-day reverse repurchase on August 25, with an operation rate of 1.40%. On the same day, 266.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 21.9 billion yuan [2] - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) operation in August was 600 billion yuan, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan after considering 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [2] - The interbank market remained sufficiently liquid, with the overnight repo weighted average rate declining further to around 1.35%. The seven-day rate saw a slight rebound due to month-end factors [2] - The central bank's recent MLF operation indicates a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, despite potential short-term market fluctuations due to stock market performance [2] Operational Recommendations - The sentiment in the bond market has improved, with long-term rates declining more than short-term rates, leading to a flattening of the yield curve. The 10-year government bond yield is observed to be at a resistance level of 1.78%-1.80% [3] - The T2512 contract is supported in the range of 107.4-107.6. Given the strong performance of the stock market, the bond market may experience fluctuations, and key levels should be monitored for potential breakthroughs [3] - It is suggested to maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term, as long-term bonds are more affected by risk appetite. If the bond market continues to recover, the yield spread may compress, while a pullback could lead to a slight steepening of the yield curve [3]
国债期货：债市情绪修复 期债全线收涨
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-26 02:13