泰和新材(002254)：氨纶景气低迷/芳纶市场竞争加剧 1H25盈利承压

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in performance for 1H25, with revenue of 1.903 billion yuan, down 2.48% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26 million yuan, down 77.58% year-on-year, primarily due to a sluggish spandex industry and intensified competition in the aramid business [1] Industry Trends - The spandex industry remains in a downturn, with average prices at 23,700 yuan per ton in 1H25, reflecting a 15% year-on-year decrease and a 4.4% decline from the previous half [2] - As of the end of 1H25, China's spandex production capacity reached 1.43 million tons, with an increase of 76,000 tons compared to the end of 2024, and an additional 100,000 tons expected to come online in 2H25, leading to a total capacity exceeding 1.5 million tons by year-end [2] - The overall weak demand suggests that spandex industry profitability may continue to remain at low levels in the short term, although gradual improvements could occur in the medium to long term due to environmental policies and capacity reductions [2] Company Developments - The company is focusing on new energy products, particularly aramid paper and aramid-coated separators, with significant growth expected in aramid paper sales driven by the demand from the new energy vehicle and aerospace sectors [3] - The company has begun trial production of aramid-coated separators, which have passed audits from several battery clients, and is expected to enter a ramp-up phase in 2026, with potential shipments exceeding 1 billion square meters per year [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to ongoing pressure on spandex and aramid profitability, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 71.3% and 31.3% to 60 million yuan and 260 million yuan, respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a 36.2 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, with a target price adjustment down by 7.7% to 12 yuan, reflecting a 39.5 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 9.2% from the current stock price [4]