智通财经网·2025-08-26 02:43Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates that the liquor stocks are on the verge of a bottom recovery in asset pricing, despite a weak recovery in the fundamentals of liquor consumption. The overall trend of improvement in fundamentals has been confirmed, suggesting investment opportunities in the liquor sector, particularly in companies like Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) and Wuliangye (000858.SZ) that have consistently increased market share during the cycle [1]. Group 1 - Since 2000, the liquor industry has experienced four cycles: 1999-2003, 2008-2009, 2012-2015, and 2022-present. The cycle from 2013 to 2015 was notably deep and similar to the current macroeconomic situation, prompting a review of capital pricing changes during that period to identify potential recovery windows for liquor stocks [2]. - The analysis of the 2013-2015 liquor cycle revealed that liquor stock prices typically bottom out approximately two quarters before the fundamentals, indicating that price reversals occur ahead of confirmed performance [2]. - Two key changes in expectations influenced the asset pricing during the previous cycle: the stabilization of terminal sales around the Dragon Boat Festival in 2014 and the improvement in the balance sheets of liquor companies, alongside the initiation of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect reform, which improved liquidity expectations for consumer stocks [3]. Group 2 - The current liquor cycle is characterized by the interplay of the liquor sector's own cycle and the macroeconomic cycle. Positive trends are observed in both demand and liquidity, with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day indicating a clearer upward trend in liquor demand, and the A-share market reaching a 10-year high in August 2025, reflecting significant liquidity improvement [3].