风险资产抛售潮黄金未能独善其身

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3,386.27, with a latest price of $3,376.48 per ounce, reflecting a 0.32% increase, and has seen a high of $3,386.27 and a low of $3,350.89 during the session, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have generally risen, with the two-year yield increasing by 4 basis points to 3.728% and the ten-year yield rising by 1.3 basis points to 4.271%, leading to a flattening of the yield curve to 54 basis points [2] - The stock market saw a collective decline, with the S&P 500 down 0.43% to 6,439.32 points, the Nasdaq down 0.22% to 21,449.29 points, and the Dow Jones falling 0.77% to 45,282.47 points, reflecting a shift to a cautious investor sentiment [2] Group 2 - The monthly chart shows gold prices have formed four consecutive candlesticks with upper shadows, establishing a solid foundation for a bearish trend [3] - The impact of tariff factors has been fully priced in by the market, and new tariff policies are unlikely to have the same strong shock effect as during the early Trump administration [3] - The geopolitical influence has significantly weakened, with conflicts being mostly small-scale and lacking substantial involvement from major powers [3] - The expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts has been a topic of speculation for two years, with the narrative of "the wolf is coming" repeatedly emerging [3] - Future gold prices are expected to gradually decline, potentially testing support levels at $3,120 and $3,268, with a final target area around $3,000 to $2,950 [3] - There remains uncertainty in the short to medium-term regarding whether gold will first break through resistance at $3,400 to $3,410 before declining or if it will be directly constrained by this resistance and experience a sharp decline [3]