“老债王”格罗斯：适度看跌10年期美债

Core Viewpoint - Bill Gross, co-founder of PIMCO, suggests that the actual federal funds rate may bottom out around mid-2027, indicating a moderate bearish outlook on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds following the Jackson Hole meeting [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The interest rate market trends post-Jackson Hole suggest that the federal funds rate could decline to 3% in approximately two years [1] - Gross anticipates that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds could reach 4%, although he finds this difficult to imagine given the future supply of trillions of dollars [1] Yield Predictions - Investors are advised to maintain a moderately bearish stance, with expectations that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds will fluctuate between 4.15% and 4.45% in the coming months [1] - The current yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is approximately 4.3%, which Gross notes is "not cheap, especially after taxes" [1] Year-to-Date Performance - Year-to-date, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has decreased by 6.3%, but it has increased by 13.1% compared to one year ago [1]