市场对美联储降息或过于乐观

Core Viewpoint - The currency market may be overly optimistic about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, as indicated by Société Générale's rate strategists [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest dollar index price is reported at 98.35, with a decline of 0.05% from an opening price of 98.44 [1] - The strategists highlight that U.S. inflation is deviating from targets and employment growth is slowing, creating a challenging situation for the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market's reaction to July's non-farm payroll data is considered excessive, with the slowdown in job growth potentially aligning with a stable unemployment rate [1] - The currency market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice in 2025 [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator is currently above the zero line, suggesting potential short-term price rebound, with a current MACD value of 0.0477 indicating ongoing upward momentum [1]