澳美央行降息预期博弈 澳元于0.65关键位徘徊

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.64 against the US dollar (USD), reflecting a decline of 0.06% from the previous close of 0.6478 [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may initiate a monetary easing cycle in November, potentially lowering interest rates by up to 50 basis points due to concerns over slowing economic growth [1] - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials suggest a flexible policy approach, with potential for rate cuts in September, influenced by trade policy pressures and signs of a weakening labor market [1] Group 2 - The AUD/USD exchange rate is influenced by the interplay between market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the anticipated magnitude of future RBA rate reductions [1] - Short-term technical analysis indicates that if the AUD/USD can break above the key level of 0.6500, it may trigger a technical rebound; however, stronger-than-expected US GDP and PCE inflation data could strengthen the USD and exert pressure on the AUD [1] - The AUD/USD has faced resistance at the kijun-sen (0.6522) and is currently testing the cloud bottom (0.6474), which is also a Fibonacci retracement level [2] - Positive momentum indicators and a potential golden cross formation on the daily chart suggest a slight bullish bias, with targets set at 0.6568 and possibly 0.6625 if upward momentum continues [2] - Conversely, if the AUD/USD falls below the cloud bottom, it may test support levels at 0.6450 and 0.6419 [2]