行情切换一触即发，新消费与传统消费开启轮动行情

Group 1 - The second quarter saw an influx of funds into the new consumption sector, driving an upward trend and raising market expectations for performance in this area. However, some high-growth stocks reported earnings below previous expectations, leading to a market adjustment before gradually stabilizing. The top companies continue to maintain stable high growth rates, and with the overall consumption market expected to bottom out, the relative growth advantage of new consumption, combined with fiscal year valuation shifts, is likely to usher in a new round of market activity [1] - Traditional consumption sectors are showing a high cost-performance ratio for rebound. From the perspective of the large consumption sector, the main industry increases since August are as follows: Automotive (12.05%), Home Appliances (9.37%), Light Industry Manufacturing (8.4%), Beauty and Personal Care (7.5%), Commercial Trade (7.44%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (7.38%), Food and Beverage (7.11%), Social Services (6.9%), Textile and Apparel (5.93%). Except for automotive, all sectors lagged behind the CSI 300 index (9.66%). Valuations are at the 79.06%, 39.29%, 75.06%, 59.51%, 89.37%, 12.11%, 11.80%, 46.13%, and 61.31% percentiles over the past decade, with Food and Beverage, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery, Home Appliances, and Social Services below their valuation midpoints. The expected profit growth rates for 2025E are 8.64%, 22.26%, 13.92%, and 45.35%, indicating good cost-performance ratios in the current industry rotation context [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Consumption ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index, which selects 50 liquid and large-cap consumption-related securities from the Hong Kong Stock Connect range to reflect the overall performance of consumption-listed companies in Hong Kong. This index covers various sectors benefiting from policy stimulus, including discretionary retail (27%), automotive and parts (13.4%), food and beverage (6%), consumer services (5.7%), and home appliances (4.9%) [2] - The Food and Beverage ETF (515170) tracks the CSI Subsector Food and Beverage Industry Theme Index, reflecting the overall trend of food industry stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets. This index selects large-scale, liquid companies from the food manufacturing sector. According to the Shenwan三级行业 distribution, the index weight is concentrated in low-valuation areas such as liquor (56.8%), dairy products (14.1%), and seasoning and fermented products (9.9%) [2]