8月下旬开始面临淡旺季转换 纸浆或将低位盘整

Core Viewpoint - The pulp futures market is experiencing a slight decline, with the main contract dropping to 5092.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.66% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Guosen Futures suggests considering a buy-on-dips strategy for pulp, noting that foreign pulp production remains stable and import volumes in China are steady, with port inventories at relatively high levels [2] - New Century Futures anticipates a consolidation phase for pulp prices, citing low profitability in the paper industry and high inventory pressures on paper mills, leading to limited acceptance of high-priced pulp [3] - New Lake Futures indicates that pulp prices may undergo low-level consolidation, with pressures from upcoming delivery and low willingness from enterprises to accept goods, alongside a decrease in overseas pricing [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market shows a weak supply-demand balance, with pulp prices at a critical point, and expectations of price consolidation due to weak demand during the off-peak season [3] - Recent statistics show an increase in global chemical pulp shipments to China, with June figures at 161.18 million tons, up 11% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year, while July imports totaled 287.7 million tons, down 5% month-on-month [4] - Port inventories of pulp have increased to 2.132 million tons, with a week-on-week rise of 33,000 tons, indicating a buildup in stock levels [4]