供应端仍充足 短期豆粕或区间震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - Soybean meal futures experienced a decline, with the main contract opening lower and falling nearly 1% during the day [1] Group 1: Market Data - As of August 22, major oil mills in the country had an imported soybean inventory of 7.55 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons week-on-week, and 420,000 tons month-on-month, but a decrease of 240,000 tons year-on-year, which is 1.14 million tons higher than the average of the past three years [2] - The soybean meal inventory stood at 1.04 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 30,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 490,000 tons, which is 90,000 tons higher than the average for the same period over the past three years [2] - On August 25, the total transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was 121,900 tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons compared to the previous trading day, with spot transactions accounting for 116,300 tons [2] - In the fourth week of August 2025, Brazil exported a total of 1.5203 million tons of soybean meal, down from 2.1327 million tons in August of the previous year, with an average daily shipment of 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1.99% compared to the same period last year [2] Group 2: Institutional Insights - According to Jiaozi Futures, a reduction in planting area has strengthened the support for U.S. soybeans at 1,000 cents, with the November contract facing short-term pressure around the 1,060 level [3] - The market is closely monitoring the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations and the State Grain Administration's plan for soybean rotation imports in the fourth quarter, with rumors of a potential release of over one million tons [3] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures reported that the good rate of U.S. soybeans is at 69%, higher than market expectations, and that the weather in soybean-producing areas is expected to have less rainfall and below-average temperatures in the next two weeks, which may impact soybean yields [3] - Domestic oil mills are operating at high levels, with a slight increase in soybean and soybean meal inventories, indicating that near-term supply remains ample [3] - Overall, the short-term outlook for soybean meal futures is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations [3]