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皖能电力(000543):度电成本显著下滑 2Q25利润转正

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue decline in the first half of 2025 but achieved a slight increase in net profit, indicating resilience amid challenging market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 13.185 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.082 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.05% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 6.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, with a net profit of 638 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1]. Operational Analysis - The positive growth in net profit for the first half of 2025 was driven by a decline in electricity costs, despite pressures from electricity prices and demand [2]. - The average electricity price in Anhui province decreased by over 0.02 yuan/kWh compared to 2024, and the purchasing price in Q2 2025 fell by 6.4% year-on-year, impacting revenue [2]. - The company’s installed capacity increased significantly, with new coal and gas power plants coming online, although overall electricity consumption in Anhui province grew at a slower rate than the national average [2]. - The decline in coal prices in Q2 2025, with long-term and market coal prices dropping by 3.6% and 25.3% respectively, contributed to a reduction in operational costs by approximately 11.6% [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in performance throughout the year, supported by low coal prices and increased installed capacity [3]. - Although coal prices have risen due to demand, they remain 22.6% lower than the previous year, and are expected to stabilize as temperatures drop [3]. - Upcoming projects, including several new power plants expected to be operational between 2025 and 2026, are anticipated to contribute positively to investment returns [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.19 billion yuan, 2.33 billion yuan, and 2.41 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.97, 1.03, and 1.06 yuan [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 7.53, 7.07, and 6.85 for the years 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].