政治风险溢价升温 贵金属价格重心上移

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment regarding interest rate cuts has shifted, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index, which closed up 0.71% at 98.394, while gold and silver prices experienced declines due to the stronger dollar [1][2]. Market Overview - On August 26, the US dollar index rebounded, closing at 98.394, up 0.71% as optimism about interest rate cuts waned [1][2]. - Spot gold traded within a narrow range, ultimately closing down 0.19% at $3365.8 per ounce, while spot silver fell more significantly, down 0.72% to $38.57 per ounce [1][2]. Key News Summary - President Trump signed a document to remove Federal Reserve Governor Cook from her position, effective immediately, which caused a short-term drop in the dollar index and a rise in gold prices by over $20 [3]. - Cook faced unprecedented allegations of mortgage fraud, which, if proven, could lead to criminal charges. Trump's demand for her immediate resignation has sparked significant legal and institutional controversy [3]. - The potential removal of Cook could allow Trump to reshape the Federal Reserve's leadership, enhancing his control over monetary policy and undermining the central bank's traditional independence [3][4]. Implications for Precious Metals - The market anticipates an over 80% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September, influenced by Powell's dovish stance at the global central bank meeting, which could support gold prices [4]. - The political intervention in the Federal Reserve's operations has created uncertainty in policy, leading to a weaker dollar and lower real interest rates, thus increasing gold's investment appeal [4]. - If political pressures continue, gold and other precious metals may receive long-term structural price support [4]. Trading Outlook - Precious metals are expected to maintain a strong upward trend in September, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and political risk premiums [5]. - If the Federal Reserve signals clear easing in September, gold prices may break above $3440; however, unexpected inflation or hawkish statements could lead to a drop towards $3380 [5]. - Silver is likely to follow gold's movements but may underperform due to its industrial characteristics, with attention needed around the $39 level [5].